Identifying Value Bets

Value betting is a concept in sports betting that involves identifying and placing bets on outcomes where the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of that outcome occurring. In value betting, you're looking for situations where you have an edge over the bookmaker, which can lead to long-term profitability.

To understand value betting with strike rate and odds, you need to consider three key elements: strike rate, implied probability, and odds.

Implied Probability This is the probability of an outcome happening, as suggested by the odds set by the bookmaker. To calculate the implied probability of an outcome, you can use the following formula for decimal odds:

Implied Probability (%) = 100 / Decimal Odds

For example, if the odds on a team winning are 2.50, the implied probability of that outcome is 100 / 2.50 = 40%.

The strike rate is the percentage of bets you win from the total number of bets placed. For example, if you place 100 bets and win 50 of them, your strike rate is 50%.

A value bet occurs when the implied probability is lower than your estimated actual probability of an outcome. You can calculate the Expected Value using this formula:

EV = (Your Estimated Probability - Implied Probability) * Odds

If the EV is positive, it suggests a value bet. For example, if you estimate the probability of a team winning is 45%, but the bookmaker's odds suggest an implied probability of 40%, you have a positive EV.

Let's say the odds for this team winning are 2.50. Your EV would be:

EV = (0.45 - 0.40) 2.50 = 0.05 2.50 = 0.125

An EV of 0.125 indicates that, on average, for every $1 you bet on this outcome, you expect to earn $0.125 in profit. Over time, this can lead to long-term profitability if your strike rate is accurate.

A high strike rate alone doesn't guarantee profits. You need both a high strike rate and positive EV to be consistently profitable. A high strike rate suggests that you are good at picking winners, while positive EV suggests you're finding value in your bets.

Even with value betting and a high strike rate, there will be losing streaks. Proper bankroll management is essential to protect your funds during these downturns.

In summary, value betting is about finding bets where the implied probability is lower than your estimated actual probability, and the odds provide a positive Expected Value. A high strike rate and disciplined bankroll management are critical to long-term success in value betting. It's important to note that successful value betting requires a good understanding of the sport, the teams, and a consistent and systematic approach to assessing probabilities and odds.

Link to strike rate calculator https://strikeratecalculator.com/